A 49% assessed-value increase from 2025 to 2026 on homes in the Iola-Scandinavia School District area would raise the pure tax liability by roughly 49% if 2025 mill rates are held constant, producing annual tax increases of approximately $2,000–$5,000+ depending on starting value (before credits). This far exceeds recent local housing-market appreciation (roughly 5–9% annually) and core inflation (roughly 2.5% recently).

The proposed school referendum adds an average of $25 per $100,000 of assessed value per year for four years. Combined with the reassessment, typical homeowners face a substantial step-up in total tax burden.

Community survey data shows majority support for the scaled-back referendum, but the concurrent large assessment-driven tax increase creates meaningful headwinds. Passage probability is best characterized as moderate (roughly 50–60% range), with notable uncertainty.

Online reaction to the assessment letters received this week includes:

“Omg absolute crap!”

I called them today, and they said taxes should not go up. Yes, right. Told them I will be calling them when my taxes go up.”

“Our land went up over $10,000. House value increased OVER $250k. HOW?!?!?!?!?”

“I mowed my lawn, and mine went up $58,000.”

“My wife and I just bought our house a little over a year ago, and it’s apparently worth over $96k more than our purchase price, and we haven’t done sh*t to the property other than cut a few trees down.”

“Been in construction and remodeling for 30 fricken years … ain’t no frickin’ way!! I didn’t build a new house!!”

“They want to price you out of your property over time.”

“County is going broke, needs money to pay for unnecessary remodeling of the courthouse. Just saying.”

Here are some calculations

What will the increase actually look like? We used AI to do the math.

All calculations below isolate the pure effect of the 49% assessment rise by applying the same 2025 mill rates to both years. Actual 2026 bills will differ because of levies, equalized values, assessment ratios, and credit changes.

1. New Assessed Values (49% Increase)

2. 2025 Mill Rates (Best Available Data & Proxies)

Exact published combined rates for every parcel in the Village of Iola / surrounding towns are not fully consolidated in a single public source for the 2025 tax year (payable 2026). Component rates from official or near-official sources are:

• Iola-Scandinavia School District: 7.11 (2024-25); 6.98 (2025-26 equalized levy rate).
• Waupaca County: approximately 4.52–4.58 per $1,000 of equalized value.
• Fox Valley Technical College: approximately 0.72–0.78 (recent City of Waupaca and system data).
• Village of Iola (local municipal): Estimated ~7.8–8.0 based on 2025 levy of ~$714,800 on assessed value of ~$90.9 million (budget documents). Prior-year figures were higher when assessed values were lower.
• State of Wisconsin: No general statewide property tax rate; impact appears via School Levy Tax Credit, First Dollar Credit, and Lottery Credit (variable by property and year; School Levy Credit is material).

Representative combined gross mill rate used for illustration: ~20.0–20.5 per $1,000 of assessed value (Village + School + County + FVTC).
Net effective rate after typical credits: roughly 18–19.5 (consistent with area median effective rates around 1.1–1.3%).

Important caveat: Rates are applied to assessed value after the local assessment ratio; equalized-value rates are used for apportionment. Actual bills vary by exact jurisdiction (Village vs. Town of Iola / Scandinavia) and individual credits. Uncertainty range on total tax estimates is ±10–15%.

3. Estimated Tax Bills (Holding 2025 Mill Rates Constant)

Using a midpoint illustrative gross rate of $20.20 per $1,000 and an approximate net rate of $18.80 per $1,000 after credits (for directionally accurate totals):

Breakdown example (approximate shares of gross): School ~35%, Village ~39%, County ~22–23%, FVTC ~4%. The school portion is the largest single controllable local component after the municipality.

4. School District Referendum Cost ($25 per $100,000 of Assessed Value, Average Annual over 4 Years)

5. Combined Estimated Annual Tax Burden (Reassessment + Referendum)

These are substantial absolute increases for a rural/small-village Wisconsin market (median home values locally are in the mid-$200k–$300k range).

6. Comparison to Housing Market and Core Inflation

• Local/regional housing market: Waupaca County FHFA House Price Index rose from 226.51 (2024) to 245.89 (2025) ≈ +8.6%. Zillow data for the county shows ~5.4% year over year as of mid-2026; recent median sale prices have shown mid-single- to low-double-digit gains in some periods. Statewide Wisconsin house prices remain well above pre-pandemic levels, but recent annual growth has slowed to roughly 4–6%.
• Core inflation: Core CPI (ex-food & energy) has been running at about 2.5% year over year recently (2.48% as of July 2026). Cumulative core inflation over a two-year window is on the order of 5–6%.

Assessment vs. market/inflation: A 49% reassessment greatly exceeds both recent annual market appreciation and core inflation. This is consistent with Wisconsin municipalities periodically updating assessments to full market value after periods of lag (prior-year district value growth was already elevated at ~15% in one recent cycle). The large jump implies many properties were previously under-assessed relative to current market conditions. While this improves uniformity (a legal goal under Wisconsin law), it produces an abrupt tax shock for owners whose assessments rise more than the market or inflation.

7. Distributional Impact and Analysis

Lower- and mid-value homes ($250k–$350k range, closer to local medians) see absolute increases of roughly $2,300–$3,200 just from the reassessment, plus the modest referendum add-on. Fixed-income, senior, and long-term owners are most exposed because their incomes have not risen 49%. Higher-value homes experience larger absolute dollar increases but the percentage impact is identical under a uniform mill rate.

Effective tax rates rise sharply in the short run until (or unless) mill rates are adjusted downward in response to higher total assessed/equalized values. Wisconsin levy limits and revenue caps constrain how much total levies can grow, so mill rates often fall when values rise sharply — partially muting the long-run impact. The calculations above deliberately hold rates constant to isolate the assessment effect.

8. Chances the School District Referendum Passes

Qualitative estimate: Moderate chance of passage (approximately 50–60% probability range).

Supporting factors:

• A community survey (summer 2026) showed ~73% of respondents would definitely or probably support an operational referendum, and ~67% support specifically the $25-per-$100k option.
• The proposal is scaled back from the failed April 2026 version.
• District messaging emphasizes maintaining programs after the prior failure and subsequent cuts.

Opposing / risk factors:

• The concurrent 49% assessment-driven tax increase creates a highly visible “tax shock” environment. Voters often react negatively when multiple cost increases hit at once.
• The prior referendum failed (by roughly 176 votes).
• Rural Wisconsin school referenda face higher hurdles when property-tax pressure is elevated; historical passage rates drop under such conditions.

Uncertainties are substantial: final turnout, exact wording, economic conditions in fall 2026, and whether mill-rate relief materializes before ballots are cast. The survey is a positive signal but is not a prediction of Election Day results (response rates and selection bias apply).

Key Caveats

• Mill rates will almost certainly change for 2026 tax bills as total equalized values, net new construction, and levy decisions are finalized.
• Credits (especially School Levy Tax Credit) and exact assessment ratios materially affect net bills.
• Jurisdiction matters (Village of Iola vs. towns).
• The 49% figure is taken as given; actual individual property changes will vary around the average.
• Reassessments are intended to reflect market value for equity; the tax impact depends on levy decisions, not the assessment alone.

Sources and Caveats

Data sources include Wisconsin DPI mill-rate reports, Waupaca County budget documents, Village of Iola budget worksheets, FHFA House Price Index, Zillow/Redfin market reports, BLS core CPI releases, and local news coverage of the referendum and survey (primarily Waupaca County Post / HeadspringIS). Confirm exact official 2025 combined mill rates for every Iola parcel with the municipal treasurer or county for precision on any individual property.