Here’s a look at the pricing journey of beef and poultry, and what the immediate future looks like for the consumer price of each at the grocery store.

This information was collected through the use of AI.

Typical markup journey for a steer

A typical beef steer weighs about 1,350 lbs. live when sold by a rancher (often via feedlot) to a slaughterhouse (packer). Based on February 2026 data, here’s a simplified pricing breakdown, using averages from USDA and industry reports. Note: Prices fluctuate; this assumes a fed steer yielding ~850 lbs. carcass and ~500-600 lbs. retail beef after processing/trim.

Rancher/Feedlot to Slaughterhouse (Packer): Rancher sells live steer at ~$2.24/lb. ($224/cwt.), totaling ~$3,024. This covers production costs like feed, land, and labor. Packers buy via auctions or contracts; ranchers capture ~35-40% of the final retail dollar, down from 60% in 1980 due to supply chain shifts.

Slaughterhouse (Packer) Processing and Markup: Packer slaughters, yielding ~850 lbs. carcass. Wholesale “boxed beef” cutout sells at ~$3.50/lb. ($350/cwt.), totaling ~$2,975 for the carcass (after costs). Packer margin: ~$500-700 per head, boosted by industry concentration (4 firms control 85% of processing). This stage adds 20-30% markup for labor, facilities, and profit.

Middlemen (Distributors/Wholesalers) Fee: Distributors transport and store cuts, adding 10-15% markup (~$0.35-0.50/lb.). They bridge packers to grocers, handling logistics; fees total ~$200-300 per steer equivalent. This includes brokers negotiating deals.

Grocery Store to Consumer: Grocer buys wholesale cuts, adds 30-40% retail markup for overhead, waste, and profit. Final all-fresh beef averages $9.25-9.55/lb. retail. For the steer: yields ~550 lbs. retail beef, sold for ~$5,100 total. Consumer pays premium for convenience; prime steaks hit $15+/lb., ground beef ~$6.70/lb.

Overall, from rancher ($3,024) to retail ($5,100), markups double the value, with packers and retailers capturing most gains amid tight supply (the lowest herd in 70 years) and strong demand.

Where savings can be found

Savings to lower consumer prices (~20% potential reduction) lie mainly in addressing inefficiencies and concentration:

Packer Concentration: The “Big 4” packers (controlling 85%) inflate margins via limited competition, widening the farm-to-wholesale spread. Antitrust actions, new regional plants, or policies promoting smaller packers could cut packer profits by 10-20%, passing $0.50-1.00/lb. savings to consumers. USDA plans aim at this via herd rebuilding and capacity expansion.

Supply Chain Efficiencies: Reduce middleman fees through direct rancher-to-consumer sales (e.g., local farms) or vertical integration, bypassing distributors (5-10% savings). Tech like better logistics could trim transport costs.

Production Side: Subsidies for ranchers to expand herds faster (e.g., drought relief) increase supply, easing prices without markup cuts. However, grocer markups (driven by slim margins) offer less room; focus here is minimal.

Consumer shifts to bulk buying or alternatives (e.g., poultry) indirectly pressure the chain, but systemic changes target packers.

Price drop expectations

Beef prices remain elevated in 2026 due to tight supplies (herd at 86M head, down 0.3% YoY) and steady demand. All-fresh retail averages $9.00-9.50/lb.; ground beef stays $6.50-7.00/lb. (already under $10). Prime steaks ($15-20/lb.) unlikely to drop below $10 in 2026. Forecasts predict stability through mid-2026, with modest declines late-year as heifer retention signals slow expansion. Meaningful drops (10-15%) are expected in 2027-28 as production rises 2-3%, potentially bringing savings.

Current retail price comparison

(as of early 2026, based on USDA/BLS data)

Ground beef — Around $6.69 per pound (national average for 100% beef, fresh; December 2025 data, with similar levels persisting into February 2026).

All-fresh beef (weighted average across cuts) — Approximately $9.25–$10.10 per pound (record highs reported, driven by tight cattle supplies).

Boneless, skinless chicken breast — Around $4.15–$4.20 per pound (national city average ~$4.15 in late 2025; some regional variation, e.g., higher in the West at ~$4.73).

Whole chicken (fresh) — Typically $2.00–$2.10 per pound.

Other chicken cuts — Leg quarters or bone-in legs often $1.80–$2.00 per pound; thighs and wings vary but generally lower than breasts.

Pork (for context) — Often falls between chicken and beef, e.g., chops or ground pork, around $4–$6 per pound depending on cut.

Chicken is roughly 40–60% cheaper than equivalent beef cuts on a per-pound basis. For example, boneless chicken breast costs about half of many beef steaks or ground beef equivalents.

Why poultry is cheaper and more stable

Supply chain efficiency — Poultry production is highly vertical (integrated from hatchery to processing), with faster turnaround (birds reach market weight in ~6–8 weeks vs. years for cattle).

Larger production volumes — US broiler output remains strong, with minimal disruptions compared to beef’s historically low cattle herd.

Lower feed and input costs — Relative to beef, poultry benefits from economies of scale and less exposure to drought/pasture issues.

Trends — Poultry prices have been relatively stable or modestly increasing in 2025–2026 (e.g., wholesale whole birds $1.20/lb.), with retail forecasts showing only slight rises (0.2% in 2026 per USDA ERS). Beef faces ongoing upward pressure from supply constraints.

Consumer implications

Many shoppers shift to chicken (or pork) when beef prices rise, helping keep poultry demand steady without major spikes. Chicken’s affordability supports its position as the most consumed meat protein per capita (~100+ lbs. annually vs. ~57 lbs. beef in recent projections).

For the latest exact figures, check USDA’s monthly retail price reports or local grocers, as prices vary by region and promotion.